Offers & Profit
Bookmaker Refund Offers
Most major bookmakers run Racing Refund offers. Usually they have a maximum stake of £25. They vary in generousity, based on how likely you will receive a free bet.
|Refund If...||% Refund Chance||Bookmakers||Expected Profit
|Horse comes 2nd or 3rd||30%||
Saturday: First race
|High odds horse wins||15 to 20%||
Saturday: 6 to 8 races
Midweek: 2 races
Saturday: 6 to 8 races
|Bet365: £6 to 8 (£50 stake)
Betfair Sports: £3 to £4
|Horse comes 2nd||15%||Betway, Will Hill and more
Varies: 1 or 2 offers daily
|Horse comes 2nd and favourite wins||5%||Paddy, Will Hill and more
Daily: 6+ races
|Others - fallers, beaten by a length||5%||Coral and more
Daily: 6+ races
The exact % chances depend on the horse's odds and the size of the field, I cover this in the Estimator below.
As you can see from the above % chance of refunds, the first three type of offers are great. We have a 15%+ chance of a refund.
The fourth and fifth types of offers are not so good, with only a 5% chance of a refund.
FAQ: How Is 'Expected Profit' In The Table Above Calculated?
Using the SkyBet offer as an example, if I have a 30% chance of a £25 free bet, this has an 'expected' free bet value of £7.50 (30% * £25). If I convert this free bet to cash profit at 80% (using a high odds horse), this has an expected profit of £6 (80% * £7.50).
Whereas if I have only a 5% chance of a free bet, then my 'expected' free bet value is only £1.25 (5% * £25). This means I only have an expected profit of £1 (80% * £1.25).
Minimising The Trigger Bet Loss Is Key!
The expected profit table above does not include your trigger bet loss. Your trigger bet loss from a £25 stake will be anything from 50p to £3. It is very important to minimise the trigger bet losses by finding the horses with the closest odds between the bookmaker and the exchange.
To do this, I highly recommend using the OddsMonkey Racing Matcher which does exactly this - as explained in the next section.
Racing Refund Profit Estimator
To help you check the profits of each type of offer, I have built this Racing Refund Profit Estimator for you to use!
Important: To edit the Estimator, create your own version by clicking File > Make a copy > Okay
The Estimator is for demonstration purposes, to help you see how different horse odds and different trigger bet losses will impact your net profit from each type of horse racing offer.
Simply enter your horse odds (highlighted in blue) and your trigger bet loss (highlighted in red) and you can see the expected net profit in bold.
How To Complete Racing Refund Offers
Using OddsMonkey Racing Matcher
I highly recommend using the OddsMonkey Racing Matcher. It is part of the OddsMonkey account which costs just £15/month with a 30 day money-back guarantee - a no brainer to give them a try!
- Shows all the offers available for every race
- Shows the lowest trigger bet losses for each offer
- Shows the exact lay stake
- One click to the bookmaker and exchange markets
I will record a video shortly on exactly how to use this, though it is very simple to use. In summary:
Step 1 Check with offers are available today in the OddsMonkey forum.
Step 2 Open the Racing Matcher for the offers you wish to complete.
Step 3 Place your bookmaker bet, lay bet and hope your free bet refund comes in!
I Am New To Horse Racing Offers, Which Offer(s) Should I Start?
I would recommend starting on a Saturday morning with the SkyBet offer. This is the most profitable offer and you can place any stake up to £25.
If you feel comfortable, you could also try either or both of the Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook offers.
The more familiar you become, you can then add in Bet365 midweek offers and the 'Finishes 2nd' offers, there are typically one or two of these each day.
How Much Do I Need In My Exchange(s)?
For the SkyBet offer, you will typically be betting £25 on a horse with odds no greater than 5.0. This would require a liability of £100 in the exchange.
For the Bet365 offer, if you are betting the full £50, you will need to have sufficient exchange funds for both your first bet and the second risk free bet (in case your first bet wins). Each bet would require a liability of approximately £250 if you were using odds of 6.0, so a minimum of £500 is required. Though you could start with smaller bet amounts whilst getting used to how the offer works.
For the Betfair offer, you will typically be betting £25 on a horse with odds no greater than 6.0. This would require a liability of £125. The free bet can be used within 48 hours.
If you wanted to do multiple offers before the races start, then you would need the combined liability amount.
Horse Racing Festivals Offers
Horse Racing Festivals are consecutive midweek days at a particular horse racing track which attract a lot of attention. The Cheltenham Festival (March), Grand National (April), Ascot (June) often see excellent promotions running, it is well worth being familiar with Horse Racing Offers just to take advantage of these particular weeks!
Bet365 Offer Tips
Back a horse with odds above 5.0 in their featured/offer races and if it wins, you receive a risk free bet for the next race, up to £50! A risk free bet is the equivalent of a free bet, only you are using your cash to place the bet (but get the £50 back as cash if it loses).
The closer to 5.0 the odds, the more likely the horse is to win, so the better chance you have of winning a free bet. Have a play with the odds in the spreadsheet to see this in action.
The free bet you receive is only eligible for the next featured race, so for the Bet365 offer you need to be online whilst the races are happening.
You can guarantee a £4 profit with this offer by overlaying. Simply add 0.8 to your back odds in the calculator i.e. if your back odds are 5.0, enter 5.8 into the calculator.
To show how this works to guarantee a £4 profit using an example of 5.0 back odds and 5.2 lay odds on Smarkets, the profit that shows will be around £4. This is because if the Bet365 horse loses, you will make a £4 profit from the overlay i.e. you will lose £50 on Bet365 but win around £54 on Smarkets. If the Bet365 horse wins, you will win £250 (+£40 from the pending free bet) on Bet365 but lose £286 on Smarkets for a £4 net profit.
Betfair Sports Offer Tips
Back a horse on Betfair Sports (not the exchange!) with starting price odds above 4.0 in their featured/offer races and if it wins, you receive a free bet up to £25! A reminder to lay off your bets with Smarkets.
'Starting price' means that when the race begins. So there is a risk if you backed a horse, 15 minutes before the race, at 4.0, that when the race starts the odds have dropped to 3.8. This would mean you would not be eligible for the free bet. So it may be best to aim for a horse with odds of 4.5+, though there is still a chance the starting price odds could still drop to below 4.0.
Horse Racing Mug Betting
The same with mug betting on football, you should look to place an bet on a non-offer horse race. The OddsMonkey OddsMatcher is excellent for finding the lowest trigger bet losses so often this will only cost you 50p.
If it helps, this is the approach I take:
For SkyBet, I place a 1 or 2 £10 bets on horses on later races on Saturday. I use the OddsMonkey OddsMatcher to find the closest matches, typically these will only cost me 50p. I place a 25p acca on 5+ races too.
For Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook, if I am betting on say 3 races, I will place a mug bet on 2 non-offer races.
For any bookmaker offering a 'finishes 2nd', I will place a mug bet on 1 non-offer race, usually for £10 to keep the loss low.
Check our mug betting article for more details.
OddsMonkey Top Links
I highly recommend OddsMonkey, not just for their Racing Matcher but they also have the following very helpful articles and forum discussions, in particular:
Offers Forum Thread - Discuss today's horse racing offers, particularly useful for Saturday's when it can get up to 500 comments!
Rule 4 Guide - How your bookmaker and exchange odds change if a horse withdraws after you have placed your bet.
Non-Runner Notifications - Notifies you for non-runners if you would like to check the rule 4 impact.
If you have any questions about matched betting or horse racing refunds, please do ask me on Live Help or in the free (and awesome!) Facebook Group.