Guaranteed Profit Method
The only downside of the Refund Offers is your trigger bet may win, meaning you do not trigger the free bet - dang!
This article shows how you can guarantee yourself a profit from Refund Offers by using the OddsMonkey Equal Profit Calculator.
It is best to explain this Method using the Totesport £25 Refund Welcome Offer example.
Let's say we bet £25 on Burnley to beat Man Utd at odds of 4.0 on Totesport with lay odds of 4.4 on Betfair Exchange.
Normal Method Recap - Hope Your Team Does Not Win
Using the normal method, we hope our chosen team (in this example, Burnley) does not win.
We place our lay bet on Burnley on Betfair Exchange using the Calculator, which tells us to place a £22.99 lay bet:
If Burney Win = no free bet and a trigger bet loss of £3.17
If Burnley Do Not Win = £25 free bet with a trigger bet loss of £3.17
Guaranteed Method - Always Profit From Refund Offers
To guarantee making a profit, we want to make a profit even if Burnley do win.
We can do this by 'underlaying' Burnley. This means we place a smaller lay bet than the Normal Method.
We calculate the amount of our lay bet using the Equal Profit Calculator available for free on OddsMonkey. Sign up for your free OddsMonkey account, it only takes 30 seconds!
How To Use The Equal Profit Calculator
As with the normal Calculator enter:
- the back stake
- back odds
- lay odds
Also add in the:
- Free bet amount you stand to win from the offer
- Free bet retention (see note 1 below the screenshot)
1. Free Bet Retention
This is the % that your free bet will convert to cash. This depends entirely on what odds you intend to use your free bet on, if it's triggered. The calculations above are to work out a total profit, based on how much of the free bet will become cash (free bet retention).
As ever, the higher the odds, the more profit you make, but just be wary you will need a higher Betfair liability:
|£25 Free Bet
|Free Bet Retention
Therefore, enter the highest free bet retention you believe you can achieve based on your Betfair balance. Ideally aim for 70% or 75% if you have £100+ in your Betfair account.
In the example above I chose 75%, because I'm confident that if I get the £25 free bet I can turn it into the +£18.75 shown in the profit breakdown in the above image.
The Ideal Lay and Profit Breakdown Explained
2. Ideal Lay Stake
The lay stake is now only £18.68, rather than £22.99 per the Normal Method.
3. Guaranteed Profit Breakdown
Because of the lower lay stake:
If Bet Wins (Bookies Wins) i.e. Burnley win
- No free bet
- We make £11.49 profit from our trigger bet.
In the above calculator screenshot, we win £75 on ToteSport from Burnley winning, but we are only paying out £63.51 on Betfair Exchange as our lay stake is now smaller than the Normal method.
If Bet Loses (Exchange Wins) i.e. Burnley do not win
- £25 free bet, which converts to £18.75 profit based on 75% free bet retention.
- We lose £7.25 from our trigger bet.
We lose the £25 ToteSport bet but because we underlayed we only recoup £17.75 from our lay stake (being £18.68 lay stake less 5% commission). This gives us a net profit of £11.50, being £18.75 - £7.25.
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